Original article: http://blog-expert.ru/blogging/future-blogs.html
Internet is developing with fast: things, that were interesting today, tomorrow will be already out-of-date, and the day after tomorrow they will be a rarity.
And what about the blogs and blogosphere? Bloggers and blogs are changing and evolving as well, and that bloggers who follow the old traditions, may be out of progress.
I wrote this in the train, when I was coming back from the meeting of the press club “DTEK”, where the theme of the mass media future was discussed. And in spite of it was obvious that newspapers and magazines will be disappeared in the next 20 years, the answer for question “What will we do with publishers?” has not been given. And this uncertainty dismays a little bit.
Therefore I suppose you to think about in what direction the blogosphere tends nowadays and how blogs will look after 10 or 20 years. Just to let you being ready for this and not being horrified by changes.
The word “Blog” will lose its definition
Today with the word “blog” you can name the corporative blog, private blog, live journal, etc – generally, all the recourses that have updating public content with the possibility of commenting and subscription. You can call it a “blog”.
At one time it took 2 years to make “blog” from “web log“; over the past few years bloggers started to use the terms like tlog, splog, moblog, blogcast, and meanwhile the composite parts like “videoblog“, “photoblog” and “news blog” are not surprising anymore.
Onwards we can expect the further “smoothing” of the definitions like blogs and blog style.
The amount of blogs will be much less
Now blogs are on peak of popularity – Yandex blog rating already contains more than 42 millions blog in russian net. One has to understand that the main part of this blogs is not creating a new content. but just “liking“, “retwitting” and “reposting“. Eventually, this activity will be strictly differentiated. Like we differentiate who sings in the opera and who sings just in the shower.
One time, the era of UGC will end: it will not be popular to create content. Therefore today’s “bloggers” will tend to a more usual content consumption and self-expression through this consumption.
A lot of services will appear, by which it will be possible to “consume” a content of bloggers; this services will make mixes, abstracts and short statements from the bloggers’ content. It will be another factor which will allow users to meet their needs in content, much less amount of users that now.
Big money will come into the big blogging
Blogging will become something like big sport – brighter, better, bigger. And for these wonders of content creation bloggers will be rewarded with a lot of money, like today all the world’s sportsmen are rewarded. Everybody will be interested to watch at bloggers, admire them. But nobody will be able to make something like they did. There will not be even a though about it.
Like it is impossible today to compete in speed with a professional athlete, who devoted all his life in this sport.
And the ordinary users will become even more lazy and passive; they will not have need to search, download and install anything. Software will do it for them – and they will only have to consume it.
Censorship, morality and ethics will disappear
Currently a lot of bloggers boast about their skill to “safely” insert a curse word or indecent picture. And this singles out them, and they are playing on the verge of “permissibles”.
In future the Law and Punishment will be automated and standardized (at least, one will write self-learning software for it) – and nobody will organize the hearing and dialogue: once you broke a law – and after few seconds the “punishment mechanism” will run.
Therefore everything that is on the verge of violation of the laws, will not be perceived by people with a “storm of indignation” like it was before.
Blogging will exceed the bounds of the Internet
After 20 years Internet will become simple and ordinary phenomena, like TV and radio today. Internet will be just a part of a blog.
For example, like RSS nowadays: It is inalienable part of blogs. Such as the Internet will be in future just a typical but not-interesting part of a blogs.
Bloggers with a dependence on a variety of existing styles will carry on their work offline. For instance, in “socialnet“, “neuronet”, “interspace” – all the things that our children will invent and implement, and who will become after 20 years new Jobs, Gates, Breens.
And in conclusion, before offering arguments like “now is doesn’t exist and therefore it will now exist in future” just recall how all the scientific and technical revolutions were passing. And what happened those who rejected a progress and ideas if innovators.
Unknown author, “Philosophy of Blogging”, blog-expert.ru